Probability, Gravity, Shakuni...and the tackling of Uncertainty in Urban Planning
'But it appears worthwhile to answer here one frequently posed question: "Does the Monte Carlo method help to win in roulette?" The answer is "no". It is not even concerned with it.' - Ilya Meyerovich Sobol, 'The Monte Carlo Method' Just as clarified by the mathematician Ilya Sobol in the line above, it is not the purpose of this article to encourage the reader to become a student of the methods of master gambler Shakuni of the Indian epic Mahabharata. However, a total ignorance of the subject of probability and the rules governing the behaviour of random phenomena can surely land the practicing urban planner in a situation similar to the hapless Yudhishthira in the game of dice. For sure, our planner would not lose a kingdom and head for a 13 year exile, but the feeling of powerlessness, overwhelming sense of failure and incompetence may last way longer. Shakuni facing Yudhishthira in the game of dice in Peter Brook's Mahabharata The urba
